Figure 1 Next Gen IBM Q "Super Fridge"

IBM recently published its roadmap to the 2023 delivery of IBM Quantum Condor, a 1121-qubit quantum system, a major and significant advance over today’s “noisy, small-scale devices”. The Condor system opens the door to 1 million+ qubit devices and sets the stage for systems with the stability, reliability, and scalability necessary to realize the full advantages of quantum computing, actual demonstration of quantum supremacy and eventual commercial exploitation.

IBM’s roadmap describes the transition from today’s small-scale quantum research[1] and relatively limited function devices to a system that will allow fuller engineering exploitation of quantum systems. It describes annual capacity increases and evolving functionality that will address and reduce today’s challenges in stability, error reduction, and scalability. It anticipates knowable emerging challenges and will be adaptive to address unknown, emerging challenges.

From IBM Quantum System One to IBM Quantum Condor

Here is a quick summary. Today, IBM provides public and clients with access to over two dozen stable IBM quantum systems hardware via the cloud. To date, a quarter of million users have accessed, created, and run some 300 billion hardware circuits on these devices. These devices are the most intensively and exhaustively used quantum devices in the world. The devices range from the 5-qubit IBM Quantum Canary to the largest, most recently released 65-qubit IBM Quantum Hummingbird. IBM will release incrementally larger systems each year the127-qubit IBM Quantum Eagle in 2021 and the 433-qubit IBM Quantum Osprey in 2022 which ends the IBM Quantum System One family. The1121-qubit IBM Quantum Condor arrives in 2023. It is the first in a new generation of IBM quantum systems.

Part of the transition entails a shift from circuits running on today’s quantum devices to those running on quantum motherboards that can be “connected” to allow scaling to multi-million qubit systems. This will involve further miniaturization of quantum components and a shift of some management and control functions to the motherboard.

To accommodate post IBM Quantum System One scaling, a much larger dilution refrigerator is needed. IBM has already started developing the larger “SuperFridge” chamber. See Figure 1. This roadmap dramatically illustrates an acceleration in the pace of quantum’s evolution.

IBM’s public statement underscores once again their deep understanding, broader vision and continuing influence on the advancement of quantum computing. The IBM announcement is available here [2]. It is well worth reading.

IBM’s visionary quantum systems

IBM, and others have been involved in quantum research and technology for some time. There are large number of quantum devices mostly simulators or specialized devices. Some boast having a significant number of qubits. Aside from the impressive speed and promises of IBM’s development cycle, what makes this so special? A short review of how and where IBM got to this point provides an answer.

Over the last two decades and operating at the extreme edge of scientific knowledge, the path from scientific theory to usable technology to a workable quantum computing system was incredibly challenging and, consequently expensive. It requires significant changes and involves activities extending far beyond what a single company could possibly manage alone. It requires building and servicing a global quantum-informed and -educated community along with a commercial ecosystem to develop, drive and support a market.

IBM’s comprehensive vision and the development path taken was unique, contributing to their significant success. They understood introducing something as radically different as quantum technology would require a large community of different interdependent efforts. They envisioned a large multi-faceted project akin to the Apollo program of many decades ago. An “agile” community with multiple parallel lines of activity undertaken by a variety of different players, competitors, partners, customers and others as time and circumstances dictated. Relationships, roles, participants and activities changed and adapted outside and beyond IBM’s control. IBM had to identify where to focus their efforts, what not to do, as well as where and how to exert influence to assure independent, but vital efforts were undertaken.

IBM’s strength was as a builder of systems. Their goal was to deliver a real quantum computing system, not a simulator, not an emulator, not a limited single-function optimizer. They started at the most basic level of hardware, expanding as needed to include operating and eventually development software.

As dictated by events and opportunity, IBM undertook complementary activities, projects, partnership, etc. These involved internal, as well as external parties spanning an increasingly global quantum community. IBM participation ranged from initial launch and delivery of services to technology and tool contribution all helping to grow a community and network built on open standards.

IBM has offered unique direction and been a major influence in the development of quantum computing. Here are just three significant areas:

IBM conceived of a complete quantum computing system, not just a research project. They understood that to make quantum real required wide access to actual quantum computing system hardware. They also recognized that success depended upon the execution of parallel development efforts with direct IBM influence in multiple areas and indirect contributions in many more.
IBM fostered the growth of a quantum community through mass democratization of access to quantum devices and tools for research, education, development, and application. They provided access via a combination of free and for-fee services to some two dozen quantum devices positioned around the world (IBM Quantum Experience[3], IBM Q Network [4], etc.).
IBM encourages and contributes to an open source quantum environment with tools (Qiskit [5], an Open Source quantum development kit), performance metric (Quantum Volume (QV)) and open cooperation and information sharing.

The Final Word

In September of 2017, we published a commentary (IBM Research on the Road to commercial Quantum Computing[6]) about IBM and quantum computing. We were motivated by IBM’s efforts to advance quantum computing from a research project to the status of an emerging technology with potentially significant benefits to enterprises of all sorts. Potential applications ranged from creation of exotic materials through molecular manipulation to optimization of asset utilization for scheduling delivery routes, allocation of market trading funds, etc. At that time, speculation was that truly commercialized quantum computing was at least 10, but likely more years away.

IBM, wisely, is not forecasting a hard delivery date. This roadmap details IBM’s plan to reach the next critical inflexion point for quantum computing as it becomes commercially viable. We believe this is encouraging indication that we will see a commercial system within a decade from today. We expect IBM’s efforts will significantly influence the delivery date, whenever it comes.

Congratulations to IBM for their contributions to date. We look forward to commenting on and discussing their efforts moving forward.

You can find more of our commentary about IBM and quantum supremacy here [7] and on quantum use cases here [8].